The First Winter Forecast for the 2010 2011 Ski Season

The other day someone dropped me an email that shared a 2010-2011 Winter Forecast. I double-clutched and looked at my calendar and the panic subsided. I’m not ready to talk about Winter just yet. It seems that every year The Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast comes out earlier than the year prior. No, I don’t have news on their forecast just yet, although they DO have the new Almanac on sale. Getting a Winter Forecast for Winter while we’re experiencing the Dog Days of Summer is like seeing Christmas displays in stores before Halloween has arrived. It just doesn’t feel right.

However, after giving in and clicking the email link I had to laugh a bit at this particular 2010-2011 Winter Forecast. We have a lot of weather buffs who post to our messageboard and they do it with a lot more vigor than the guru who’s posted this particular "model", but what the heck. We’re snowlovers and if someone’s going to go through all the trouble to create such polished and professional maps and graphics AND go into such detail about the coming winter being a cold one, then we’re all in.

Keep in mind this is for entertainment value ONLY and that we’re not advising you guys to book the Taj Mahal at XYZ Ski Resort for December 25th through February 28th based on this weather forecast.

THE FORECAST

See his full forecast blog by CLICKING HERE

Here’s the weather guru’s profile:

"Hi. You may either know me as Snowlover123 or Count Sleek. I am a student who is interested in the nature of the climate, I may not be able to post often because I’m busy. Though, when I do, I want ALL of your comments. I reside in NJ, and we have gotten a very good snow year this year, which according to Al Gore is evidence of Global Warming. I am a skeptic, and I have a right to be. Alarmists have been tearing apart the story, and there are 2 sides to this story- not 1."

He had ME at "I’m a skeptic."

I wish I had the guy’s name but here’s his forecast:

Yeah. I’m a snow lover, and since there’s only 6 months until next winter, I should probably get going.

<We told you! Great Graphics Count Sleek! (What this guy lacks in graphic skills, he more than makes up for in forecasting a cold winter!

(Figure 1) We will have a moderate La Nina during the Winter of 2010-2011. What that means, is that for the folks living from Charleston SC, to Bangor ME, (East Coast), you’re in for another harsh winter.

This map explains it all. (Really???)
Moderate La Ninas bring an incredible ridge of warmth in the Plains, cool in the NW, and cold along the East Coast. Because ridges are often associated with dry weather, the border line for dry/wet will cut right across the continental US. As of 6/1/10, this is what I’m predicting for the Winter of 2010-2011.

(Figure 2) (Click the link to his site for Figure 2)
This is based off of the CFS model, (Climate Forecasting System) and is subject to change. This model also shows major Global Cooling for the Winter of 2010-2011. 70-80% of the Earth looks colder than normal.

(Figure 1 – Back to his profession graphics!) My prediction for the 2010-2011 is this. This is a very early prediction, and of course, is subject to change if any new weather events unfold and come into the picture.

(Figure 2) A series of forecasts from the CFS. This is an anomaly map. A departure from normal map, for layman’s terms. You can see that in the Summer of 2010, over 50% of the Earth is above normal, to the Winter of 2010-2011 in the bottom right-hand corner, when 70-80% of the Earth looks cold. Also, notice the prominent Moderate La Nina in the Equatorial Pacific that signifies that my forecast will be right.

(I don’t know. We just like this guy. I’m assuming its a guy. I don’t think a gal would call themselves ‘Count Sleek’. )

The bigger, badder, more intricate prognostications will be forthcoming as soon as I can locate our Clem Kadiddlehopper Weather Forecasting kit. I know I left that somewhere near my desk last March!*&@

Also we’l be featuring Meteorologist Brad Panovich’s 2010-2011 Winter Forecast dedicated SOLELY to the Southeast and Mid Atlantic ski areas. We’ll also include the Woolly Worm, Accuweather’s, NWS/NOAA and The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts (not necessarily in that order or order of importance).

With all of the heat blasting the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, bear in mind that its in the mid 70s around the mountain communities and there’s LOTS to do at your favorite part of the mountains to escape the heat.

More to come…

You can email us at [email protected] or get to me directly at [email protected]

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Mike Doble
Mike is the Editor and founder of SkiSoutheast.com, SkiNC.com and ResortCams.com. Since September 1996 he has posted more than 13,000 posts, articles, photos and videos promoting all of the ski areas of North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland.Mike is the father of four daughters, is an avid skier and enjoys golf, tennis, kayaking and hiking in the mountains. Winter snowsports and Summer boating on Watauga Lake are among his favorite pastimes.