Ski Southeast Messageboard

Well the drumbeats of predictions continue for a strong, maybe VERY strong (record), El Nino season this winter possibly through early spring. Last very strong El Nino was '97-'98. Anybody have a summary of conditions for the mid-atlantic that season?

From some smart dude (Washington Post article)....

In the Mid-Atlantic, results have been a mixed bag, and highly dependent on El Niño’s final strength. Moderate or strong El Niños could potentially deliver a very white winter, while a very strong El Niño could mean conditions too warm for snow in the Mid-Atlantic.

“El Niño events have had a remarkably varied history in our region when it comes to snowfall,” said Matt Rogers in an early winter outlook. “Our most recent El Niño event (2009-2010), a moderate one, gave us the snowiest winter on record (56.1 inches), while the strongest one (1997-1998) was very warm and only delivered 0.1 inches the entire season, our least snowy outcome!!”

Pray for just a strong one I guess. Meanwhile, the midWest and West are in store for great winters either way? Hmm, and I've been recently thinking of trying VT this season.

Where's the board's weather guys?

Weather junkies, what's your input on this?

So we've got a SE prediction similar to last year's prediction? A back-loaded winter with bonus snow due to a mild El Nino?

200% snowfall this year? Last year's was 166% and, as we know, that didn't really shape up. Is that because that mild El Nino never took form?

ANSWER MY QUESTIONS

Give it a bit of time L Bear, we have a long way to go... All you can do at this point in time is cross your fingers/toes, or erect an alter, and pray to Ullr!

Tweet from @RaleighWx:

Uh yeah, the Eurasian huma huma the QBO and AO but analog the digital. So the only thing I can predict is the NFL season ending in Feb but with NHL & NBA dragging out til April or May. Ok, carry on and keep waxin.

Another point of view for us simple minds.....
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2015/1 ... -the-west/

spydeeTJB wrote:Uh yeah, the Eurasian huma huma the QBO and AO but analog the digital. So the only thing I can predict is the NFL season ending in Feb but with NHL & NBA dragging out til April or May. Ok, carry on and keep waxin.

PSH... NHL will be June! Mark me on that.

So it looks like the consensus is that a pronounced El Nino effect this year will either give us great (the Eurasian huma huma), average (due to the analog the digital effect), or crappy (due to the QBO and AO) snow season with snowfall somewhere between 0 and 600% of the normal average. Seems straightforward.

Forecast looks bleak. The next two weeks don't look great at all. Ugh. If anyone is trying to make a trip in the next two weeks, head to the Northwest. They about to get DUMPED on.