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Winter Forecasts

This is the place to post your weather comments, photos, questions, maps and insight.
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theKENDOG
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Bronco
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Typical Nina forecast. Any monkey could have done this. How well did their forecast verify last year........:rolleyes:





Just remember...

Accuweather forecast...





Actual DJF average...

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theKENDOG
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Region 6) Wintry Zone/Temps Will Fluctuate: This area includes areas from Oklahoma/Kansas to the Tennessee Valley to the Southeast. This is going to be a fun region to be living in if you like a wild winter. This entire region will be impacted by strong, Arctic outbreaks, and this region (east of the Mississippi River) will be locked into a cold pattern at the beginning of the winter that will persist into January. Snow lovers will get to see snowfall, and some of these areas could end up seeing above-average snowfall. The Tennessee Valley could again see a very snowy winter and will experience brutally cold conditions with some of the Arctic outbreaks that penetrate southward. Also, ice storms could also be a threat for these same areas. Further into the winter, this area could see a thawing period, but that depends on several factors that still need to be monitored. So if you like snow, cold, warmth, and rain, you’ll probably get to see all of this weather at some point in the winter.
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mattd08
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I could definitely deal without the ice, and i want ALOT of snow.
Bronco
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^I guess SPAM is in the forecast as well.
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theKENDOG
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He's been banned now. Don't worry.
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Dracan6
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Funny, being that this is ski SOUTHEAST. Most of us would not get a lot of snow or ice. So we wouldn't benefit from metal roofs at all (considering the argument stated)... Fail..
17-18 Just a wk at Breck. "Got Oxegen?" Is real!
Bronco
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Here's a forecast that was just posted on a weather BB that I'm a member of (American Weather). Enjoy.



http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/ ... 2011-2012/



..and to add what this meteorologist just posted:D



FoothillsNC Posted 3 minutes ago



I like DT's forecast and am in pretty good agreement. From what I recall though, his neg. NAO periods, which he and I both are relying on, don't add up on his map exactly, but its not far off. If we get the neg. NAO thats west based , and the trends are looking that way, then we'll have another below normal temp. Winter in the Southeast in General, centered on the Apps. and mostly east of the Miss. River. Its a trade off though, since an enhanced jetstream this season probably will produce more rain events than last year's did, more precip overall..but for some, that will equate to a lot more snow....esp on the Tenn side and the southern App mountains themselves, imo. There's never any guarantees though regarding the state of NAO, but I'm pretty sure that we'll deal with a mostly negative one at times, and if you look back at past winter events in the Southeast, almost always on the big scale picture, you need to have that. If not, you're relying on luck and timing with a split-flow, something that is rare in a Nina. After last year, we saw that Nina's with blocking can and do produce the goods in the Southeast. Some areas though, like northwest NC and western and northern VA can miss out if the flow is too supressed. I've taken my best educated guess.
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Models are still showing a possible 1" on 10/21.



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