2019/2020 A Tale of Two Ski Resort Season Prospects
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:27 am
Ok, yes, the Christmas and New Year holidays were mostly rough if not brutal for most resorts weather wise-but we did squeak by-at least at Snowshoe we did. And as Mike recently reported, most resorts had pretty good skier visits. (@SS, even though it was nail-biting, our highest paying guests of the year both reported good experiences despite the warm up (each guest had a couple good days).
Well, while the purpose of this post is not to weigh in on optimism or pessimism for the season (see Enjoying summer 2020 already), it is rather to paint a pretty stark contrast of reality (IMO) of those resorts that will thrive or at least "make it" this season and those that will not (or struggle tremendously)
Anyway I personally remain optimistic, (heck I can't ski now anyway-I have about 6 weeks of recovery from open-heart surgery remaining-btw, that is why I selfishly predict a cold and snowy second half of the season ), there is plenty to be concerned about. Ober and Sapphire have just closed and several resorts are on the bubble. In Virginia, Wintergreen and Massanutten are barely open and WTG tubing hill is mud.
My point is that I see two groups of resorts for the remainder of the 2019/2020 season for the SE - "Thrivers" and "Diers". The thrivers will be those that 1) are gifted geographically by colder climate and 2) those that have the snow making beef AND used the dang equipment aggressively.
I see the breakdown like this:
"THRIVERS/SURVIVORS"
Snowshoe (further north, west slope mountain location, and relatively aggressive snow making)
Cat (southern, but aggressive snow making, management)
App (small and aggressive snow making)
Wisp (most geographically north more aggressive snow making this year)
Bryce (small and aggressive snow making despite east slope location)
"DIERS/TRIERS"
Ober (most southern location hurting them)
Wintergreen (east slope location, late on snow making)
Wolf
Homestead (small but late on snow making)
Canaan Valley
Beech (showed some aggressive snow making, but likely will not achieve 100% open this season)
Sugar (showed some aggressive snow making, but likely will not achieve 100% open this season)
Winterplace (late to start making snow)
I'm sure folks will take issue with my list, but IMO the Thrivers are distinguished yes by location, but mostly by snow making and aggressive management. "A resort in the SOUTHEAST HAS TO MAKE SNOW WHEN THE OPPORTUNITY EXISTS, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS EFFICIENT SNOW OR SEEMS FINANCIALLY PRUDENT OR NOT".
Take the case-in-point at Snowshoe this year. Following large snow making investment, management made opening Shay's including Lower Shay's a pre-Christmas priority along with Cupp and achieved 100% Western Territory open for the high-revenue Christmas season.
As has been suggested previously, skiing in the SE requires a Skier/Rider strategy or perhaps attitude adjustment as well! Just as the expectation has to be that resorts MAKE SNOW WHEN THEY CAN, Skiers/Riders must ENJOY SNOW WHEN THEY CAN. Taking the attitude that resorts should deliver a good product each and every day regardless of the weather, is just not reality for SE. Maybe in Colorado, but not here. It has often been said, make hay when it is time to make hay, and I believe Skiers/Riders will be happier if they take the mindset that hey, if I want 20 + days in the SE, I have to be flexible and GO WHEN IT IS GOOD, because there will be plenty of days when it is NOT GOOD.
Getting back to the THRIVERS, I believe these are the resorts that have the best chance of being 100% open for some duration this season. I don't see that happening for the vast majority of resorts (hopefully I will be VERY WRONG and eating crow soon!)
Further the 10-15 day weather forecast is a similar dichotomy. The geographically "cold" resorts look to have the most snow making and natural snow opportunities, while the geographically "warm" resorts may not be getting enough snow making opportunities (SMO's) in the next 15 days to even stay open!
Let's hope I'm wrong and 100% of the resorts end up being Thrivers due to a cold snap back half of the winter and aggressive mountain ops teams!
Cheers!
Well, while the purpose of this post is not to weigh in on optimism or pessimism for the season (see Enjoying summer 2020 already), it is rather to paint a pretty stark contrast of reality (IMO) of those resorts that will thrive or at least "make it" this season and those that will not (or struggle tremendously)
Anyway I personally remain optimistic, (heck I can't ski now anyway-I have about 6 weeks of recovery from open-heart surgery remaining-btw, that is why I selfishly predict a cold and snowy second half of the season ), there is plenty to be concerned about. Ober and Sapphire have just closed and several resorts are on the bubble. In Virginia, Wintergreen and Massanutten are barely open and WTG tubing hill is mud.
My point is that I see two groups of resorts for the remainder of the 2019/2020 season for the SE - "Thrivers" and "Diers". The thrivers will be those that 1) are gifted geographically by colder climate and 2) those that have the snow making beef AND used the dang equipment aggressively.
I see the breakdown like this:
"THRIVERS/SURVIVORS"
Snowshoe (further north, west slope mountain location, and relatively aggressive snow making)
Cat (southern, but aggressive snow making, management)
App (small and aggressive snow making)
Wisp (most geographically north more aggressive snow making this year)
Bryce (small and aggressive snow making despite east slope location)
"DIERS/TRIERS"
Ober (most southern location hurting them)
Wintergreen (east slope location, late on snow making)
Wolf
Homestead (small but late on snow making)
Canaan Valley
Beech (showed some aggressive snow making, but likely will not achieve 100% open this season)
Sugar (showed some aggressive snow making, but likely will not achieve 100% open this season)
Winterplace (late to start making snow)
I'm sure folks will take issue with my list, but IMO the Thrivers are distinguished yes by location, but mostly by snow making and aggressive management. "A resort in the SOUTHEAST HAS TO MAKE SNOW WHEN THE OPPORTUNITY EXISTS, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS EFFICIENT SNOW OR SEEMS FINANCIALLY PRUDENT OR NOT".
Take the case-in-point at Snowshoe this year. Following large snow making investment, management made opening Shay's including Lower Shay's a pre-Christmas priority along with Cupp and achieved 100% Western Territory open for the high-revenue Christmas season.
As has been suggested previously, skiing in the SE requires a Skier/Rider strategy or perhaps attitude adjustment as well! Just as the expectation has to be that resorts MAKE SNOW WHEN THEY CAN, Skiers/Riders must ENJOY SNOW WHEN THEY CAN. Taking the attitude that resorts should deliver a good product each and every day regardless of the weather, is just not reality for SE. Maybe in Colorado, but not here. It has often been said, make hay when it is time to make hay, and I believe Skiers/Riders will be happier if they take the mindset that hey, if I want 20 + days in the SE, I have to be flexible and GO WHEN IT IS GOOD, because there will be plenty of days when it is NOT GOOD.
Getting back to the THRIVERS, I believe these are the resorts that have the best chance of being 100% open for some duration this season. I don't see that happening for the vast majority of resorts (hopefully I will be VERY WRONG and eating crow soon!)
Further the 10-15 day weather forecast is a similar dichotomy. The geographically "cold" resorts look to have the most snow making and natural snow opportunities, while the geographically "warm" resorts may not be getting enough snow making opportunities (SMO's) in the next 15 days to even stay open!
Let's hope I'm wrong and 100% of the resorts end up being Thrivers due to a cold snap back half of the winter and aggressive mountain ops teams!
Cheers!