Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:06 am
It's Arctic hammer time!!!
THE SKIING WEATHERMAN’S WEATHER MISSIVE 02/18/06
As this week comes to a close, a rock n’ roll cold front is making its way offshore in the east. It came barreling east from the Great Lakes today, cranking up damaging winds both in front of and behind the front itself. In advance of the front, warmer air spread all the way northward into Quebec, so just about every resort in the eastern time zone got some rain today…surfaces that were packed powder early this week have been firmed up, and tonight, groomers are crawling over slopes throughout the east, in an attempt to make the product more acceptable to the holiday weekend crowds. Thankfully, the raging winds that accompanied today’s cold front…winds that caused lift ops problems on the high peaks today…will be subsiding overnight. Snowmaking will resume, too, and that will also help in the effort to soften surfaces. Lake effect snow will help, too, in areas downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario. Peek N Peak, Holiday Valley and Snow Ridge in New York look to be in the best locations to capitalize on the lake snows…all three resorts should pick up a solid 6 inches plus by midday Sunday.
While high pressure will dominate over the east from the Great Lakes to New England this weekend, further south there is likely to be a light to moderate snowfall. A minor jet stream level disturbance will tap into the newly arrived cold air to set off 3 to 5 inches in the mountains of North Carolina, so Ski Beech, Ski Hawksnest, and Sugar Mountain will be sporting some fresh snow on Saturday, and light snow, on the order of 1 to 3 inches, will also reach Wintergreen and Massanutten in Virginia. This system is the one that, earlier this week, I felt had a chance to reach southern New England, but the upper flow is going to be too flat for anything to turn the corner this weekend.
While the arrival of today’s cold front dropped temperatures dramatically, the temps will bottom out after a secondary cold front moves through the region later on Saturday. This front will be moisture starved, but there will be mountain snow showers in New York and New England. Behind this second boundary, the coldest air of the season lurks, and Sunday will be a very cold day on the slopes of the northeast…nothing that a prepared skier or rider can’t handle, but it will be a slap in the face of sorts after the warmth of much of the past 6 weeks.
Next week, another relatively weak impulse will move through the southern Appalachians, which will bring about a somewhat unusual occurrence in that part of the country…snow on snow. Arctic air will continue to press into the U.S. next week, and with a trough in the southwest, we’ll have to be on the lookout for any and all impulses that are ejected from the trough…as they come east, they will act on the thermal boundary set up by the southward push of the mass of cold air. Mush of this winter, the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation has been neutral or slightly positive. If you live in the east, a NEGATIVE NAO is what you are looking for. In the negative phase, the NAO produces high latitude blocking at the jet stream level…usually centered somewhere around Greenland. The blocking tends to cause the jet stream to buckle upstream, over the United States, and that also usually produces a trough over the eastern U.S. The trough acts as a very nice repository for a fresh shot of cold air, if it’s available. There is plenty of cold air in Canada, and it will take, at a minimum, several weeks for that cold air mass to moderate appreciably. There are some signs now that a negative NAO will develop around the first of March…usually it has two to three weeks of staying power…and a negative NAO has its strongest influence in the latter stages of winter. It is for this reason that I anticipate the cold weather continuing into March, perhaps into the middle of the month, or longer. During that time I also believe that the east will be positioned for at least one major storm threat…the pieces will be there…ultimately it will boil down to whether the northern and southern branches of the jet phase at the right time. The first such threat will come by the end of next week, I believe…something to watch for as next week develops. Any major storm late next week would open the door to yet another outbreak of arctic air.
In the west, a short wave trough will move through the Sierra of California this weekend, producing one to two feet of snow in the Tahoe region. The system will weaken as it moves further inland, so that by the time it reaches the Wasatch later in the weekend, amounts will be lighter, but 6 to 8 inches of fresh snow is always welcomed. The cold front trialing from this western system will reach southward to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of New Mexico, where it will interact with a shot of moisture in the southern branch, and that means 4 to 8 inches of new snow for Taos, where fresh snow has been a rare commodity this season. Thanks to a tremendous effort on the part of the snowmakers, Taos has about two thirds of their terrain open, and just about their entire vertical is skiable. Even the famous Ridge has been open, but clearly, Taos deserves this new snow. Next week’s snow in the west will be more likely to occur south of I-80, as the remnants of the western trough squeeze out more flakes. In the northern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest, it will be unseasonably cold, as the Canadian cold air mass spreads out in that direction, too.
The rest of this month promises to be full of forecasting challenges, as is always the case when you have a large mass of cold air undergoing attack from the south and southwest. If you are headed to an eastern resort for President’s Week, at least there isn’t the threat of a holiday warm-up similar to what happened during Christmas Week. IF you are skiing or riding this weekend, however, a mid season edge tune-up might be a good idea, because surfaces will be firm in the wake of the latest thaw/freeze cycle. All in all, the prospects for eastern snow lovers are good as we head toward the end of February and on into March.
THE SKIING WEATHERMAN’S WEATHER MISSIVE 02/18/06
As this week comes to a close, a rock n’ roll cold front is making its way offshore in the east. It came barreling east from the Great Lakes today, cranking up damaging winds both in front of and behind the front itself. In advance of the front, warmer air spread all the way northward into Quebec, so just about every resort in the eastern time zone got some rain today…surfaces that were packed powder early this week have been firmed up, and tonight, groomers are crawling over slopes throughout the east, in an attempt to make the product more acceptable to the holiday weekend crowds. Thankfully, the raging winds that accompanied today’s cold front…winds that caused lift ops problems on the high peaks today…will be subsiding overnight. Snowmaking will resume, too, and that will also help in the effort to soften surfaces. Lake effect snow will help, too, in areas downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario. Peek N Peak, Holiday Valley and Snow Ridge in New York look to be in the best locations to capitalize on the lake snows…all three resorts should pick up a solid 6 inches plus by midday Sunday.
While high pressure will dominate over the east from the Great Lakes to New England this weekend, further south there is likely to be a light to moderate snowfall. A minor jet stream level disturbance will tap into the newly arrived cold air to set off 3 to 5 inches in the mountains of North Carolina, so Ski Beech, Ski Hawksnest, and Sugar Mountain will be sporting some fresh snow on Saturday, and light snow, on the order of 1 to 3 inches, will also reach Wintergreen and Massanutten in Virginia. This system is the one that, earlier this week, I felt had a chance to reach southern New England, but the upper flow is going to be too flat for anything to turn the corner this weekend.
While the arrival of today’s cold front dropped temperatures dramatically, the temps will bottom out after a secondary cold front moves through the region later on Saturday. This front will be moisture starved, but there will be mountain snow showers in New York and New England. Behind this second boundary, the coldest air of the season lurks, and Sunday will be a very cold day on the slopes of the northeast…nothing that a prepared skier or rider can’t handle, but it will be a slap in the face of sorts after the warmth of much of the past 6 weeks.
Next week, another relatively weak impulse will move through the southern Appalachians, which will bring about a somewhat unusual occurrence in that part of the country…snow on snow. Arctic air will continue to press into the U.S. next week, and with a trough in the southwest, we’ll have to be on the lookout for any and all impulses that are ejected from the trough…as they come east, they will act on the thermal boundary set up by the southward push of the mass of cold air. Mush of this winter, the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation has been neutral or slightly positive. If you live in the east, a NEGATIVE NAO is what you are looking for. In the negative phase, the NAO produces high latitude blocking at the jet stream level…usually centered somewhere around Greenland. The blocking tends to cause the jet stream to buckle upstream, over the United States, and that also usually produces a trough over the eastern U.S. The trough acts as a very nice repository for a fresh shot of cold air, if it’s available. There is plenty of cold air in Canada, and it will take, at a minimum, several weeks for that cold air mass to moderate appreciably. There are some signs now that a negative NAO will develop around the first of March…usually it has two to three weeks of staying power…and a negative NAO has its strongest influence in the latter stages of winter. It is for this reason that I anticipate the cold weather continuing into March, perhaps into the middle of the month, or longer. During that time I also believe that the east will be positioned for at least one major storm threat…the pieces will be there…ultimately it will boil down to whether the northern and southern branches of the jet phase at the right time. The first such threat will come by the end of next week, I believe…something to watch for as next week develops. Any major storm late next week would open the door to yet another outbreak of arctic air.
In the west, a short wave trough will move through the Sierra of California this weekend, producing one to two feet of snow in the Tahoe region. The system will weaken as it moves further inland, so that by the time it reaches the Wasatch later in the weekend, amounts will be lighter, but 6 to 8 inches of fresh snow is always welcomed. The cold front trialing from this western system will reach southward to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of New Mexico, where it will interact with a shot of moisture in the southern branch, and that means 4 to 8 inches of new snow for Taos, where fresh snow has been a rare commodity this season. Thanks to a tremendous effort on the part of the snowmakers, Taos has about two thirds of their terrain open, and just about their entire vertical is skiable. Even the famous Ridge has been open, but clearly, Taos deserves this new snow. Next week’s snow in the west will be more likely to occur south of I-80, as the remnants of the western trough squeeze out more flakes. In the northern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest, it will be unseasonably cold, as the Canadian cold air mass spreads out in that direction, too.
The rest of this month promises to be full of forecasting challenges, as is always the case when you have a large mass of cold air undergoing attack from the south and southwest. If you are headed to an eastern resort for President’s Week, at least there isn’t the threat of a holiday warm-up similar to what happened during Christmas Week. IF you are skiing or riding this weekend, however, a mid season edge tune-up might be a good idea, because surfaces will be firm in the wake of the latest thaw/freeze cycle. All in all, the prospects for eastern snow lovers are good as we head toward the end of February and on into March.