Meteorologist Brad Panovich Talks of “Adjusting the Winter Forecast”

It’s unofficially official! Brad Panovich posted his latest Skier’s Forecast video and he’s using comments such as "We’re looking at the SAME PATTERN we’ve seen all December for January". You guys and gals can look at Brad’s latest Skier’s Forecast Video yourself, however what he’s talking about is a weather version of the best offensive line in football in the form of the Omega Block wherein Greenland is forming a blocking line that isn’t allow weather systems to move further east than the coast. This great "offensive line" is causing the Canadian or Arctic air to then push further south than anticipated and THAT is offsetting the now famous La Niña scenario that TYPICALLY insures that the southeast is warmer and dryer than normal for winters.

Now before I get a truckload of weather guru emails let me state that I am aware than La Niña typically affects weather patterns in North America beginning in January. Since we’ve just started January I realize that I could be barking too soon. However to that I say fooie. According to Brad Panovich we’re seeing that at least through January 16th a NEGATIVE NAO which will insure COLD and SNOWY weather through mid month and perhaps long enough that Brad mentioned in his latest weather video that we "…May have to adjust our winter forecast".

I can already see Joe Stevens rolling his eyes and dialing my phone number because meteorologists who change the forecast AFTER the weather has happened are not forecasting. That isn’t adjusting, that’s reporting what HAPPENED. I’m with Joe on that one, however I am also sure that Brad is talking about adjusting the rest of the winter forecast to be a bit colder and snowier than what was forecasted prior to the season.

Prior to the season, weather peeps were saying that the southern tier of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic ski areas – such as those in North Carolina, would have challenge to keep snow on the slopes particularly towards the end of December and the rest of the winter until perhaps a late March finishing kick of cold and snow. They also predicted that perhaps those resorts in West Virginia would get more snow than the more challenged southern states. While Snowshoe is on par to match their normal 180" of snow for the season, the North Carolina ski areas are all well ahead of schedule with Beech Mountain actually nearing 70% of their average seasonal natural snowfall.

Nooowwwww, according to Meteorologist Brad Panovich we may see a continuance of what we’ve seen all December long. Snow is in the forecast for the WV ski areas Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and into Monday. The first few days of it looks like "ambience snow" while the weekend event looks like the accumulating variety! The entire ski area region should see snow this weekend. How much? Too early to tell; however we are not starting the year concerned about base depths as many forecasted before the season ever began. In fact, ski areas should be making snow like crazy for the next two weeks at least and THAT means great conditions should be the phrase of the first half of the month and beyond.

So THINK CONTINUED COLD and THINK SNOW!

SUMMER DROUGHT???

Although this isn’t a ski related issue right now, the same peeps who were forecasting a milder than normal winter are also talking that we’re in the midst of the strongest La Niña in the past 60 years. Evidently it isn’t strong enough to offset the offensive line that we talked about earlier, but according to "experts" IF La Niña stays active through the summer, it could have drastic consequences. According to two sources we researched that study tree rings – those show that the last major drought was 23 years ago and we’re overdue for one.

To that I say, didn’t we just have a major drought two years ago? Aren’t some areas of the southeast still in a drought according to some peeps?

Who comes up with this stuff? They have to related to Dr. Chi Kenlittle! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

As long as what’s falling is snow, I’m ALL IN!

Go check out Brad’s Video Forecast and email me your comments to [email protected]

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Mike Doble
Mike is the Editor and founder of SkiSoutheast.com, SkiNC.com and ResortCams.com. Since September 1996 he has posted more than 13,000 posts, articles, photos and videos promoting all of the ski areas of North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland.Mike is the father of four daughters, is an avid skier and enjoys golf, tennis, kayaking and hiking in the mountains. Winter snowsports and Summer boating on Watauga Lake are among his favorite pastimes.