Forecast update:



Short term… clear and cold, great skiing and great for snowmaking overnight and even during the day if the resorts so wish. If I were them I’d pad the base as much as possible the next few days without making the skiers mad, because some rain is in the forecast.

Things looks ugly this weekend as we get the dreaded cold wedge across the piedmont of the Carolinas and the mid Atlantic. This pattern can be a curse for ski resorts in the Southeast, because it will snow and sleet down at lower elevation and rain and or freezing rain at high elevations. Some times you’ll get all 3 from top to bottom at some spots. Could be snow at the top of Sugar with rain halfway down and freezing rain at the bottom. YUCK! This time the amount and depth of the cold air is the key to the resorts.

Here’s how things look this morning. Snow starts early Saturday and should switch to sleet then some freezing rain by late in the day. Then just some light rain for a brief period of time Sunday. This could accumulate to around 2-3” depending on the amount of actual snow that falls, I’m leaning towards less due to the warm air at the mid levels. Then another piece of energy comes at us late Sunday into Monday, but again looks colder at lower elevation with warm air at the mid levels. Which means that it will be rain in the mountains… and sleet, and freezing rain down in the Piedmont. I see rain even up at Snowshoe and Winterplace, while Charlotte, Greensboro and Roanoke get snow or ice. From Late Sunday into early Tuesday.

The good news is that after this second piece of energy it gets cold again. Then eyes turn to the long, long range forecast. Which is always taken with a grain of salt, you don’t look for specifics this far out but you look for trends. The trend continues to show a Southern Low forming and moving on the ideal track for big snows for the Southeast Mountains and then up the East coast as a Nor’easter. The moisture and track is the key here. The cold air looks just fine. I know everyone is getting stoked about this, but the short term forecast this weekend is going to have to take precedent right now, but I’ll keep my eyes on the Feb. 3-5th time frame especially by Sunday night.

I’ll post a complete forecast Friday then again looks for updates Saturday and Sunday morning. Then Sunday evening I’ll post on the possible storm for late next week.

Quickcast:

North Carolinas:

Thursday & Friday: Clear and cool high near 30 lows near 14
Saturday & Sunday: Snow, sleet and freezing rain. High near 35, lows near 29
Monday Light rain or freezing rain highs near 35, lows near 33.


Virginias:

Thursday & Friday :Flurries early then clear and cold, highs near 20 lows near 10
Saturday & Sunday: Cloudy some flurries late. High near 32, lows near 25
Monday: Rain and warmer. Highs near 38, lows near 32.


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